At the National Academy of Social Insurance’s annual meeting, a pair of influential Democratic and Republican strategists agreed that the presidential election failed to provide any clear mandate for changes or reforms to the Medicare and Social Security programs. They also shared a belief that neither party offered specific solutions during the campaign, so the bitter political struggles over these issues continue. NASI is a nonpartisan think tank dealing with Medicare and Social Security.

Republican strategist David Winston said that rather than bringing Americans together, the presidential campaign was relentlessly negative. “The campaign was so narrowly focused: 91 percent of Romney’s ads were negative; 85 percent of Obama’s ads were negative,” he said.        

Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg agreed: “At the presidential level, there was not a full-throated debate about the budget and Medicare and Social Security. Gay rights [were] settled in this election; social insurance [Medicare and Social Security] was unsettled in this election,” she said. 

There seems scant chance for any bipartisan agreement on managing the future of Medicare and Social Security because the party differences are so great, the opposing party strategists concurred. 

Democrats, especially those on the left in the progressive camp, say “hands off” the two major programs. Republicans say Medicare and Social Security are no longer affordable in their current systems and must be changed as part of an effort to control the federal deficit.

The discussion topic for Winston and Greenberg was “How Can We Get Consensus on Medicare and Social Security Reforms Post-Election?”  Their basic answer was, “We can’t.” 

“It was a huge strategic error by the GOP not to have a full- throated debate on economics,” Winston said.

The Republicans will now seek to make economics the front and center issue for the next two years exactly because they didn’t during the presidential campaign, Winston predicted. He is president of the Winston Group, a Washington, D.C.-based political strategy and messaging firm. Winston has been an adviser to Republican leaders in the Senate and House for the past 10 years.

He added, “There there will be a huge fight on the issue, ‘how do we move back to a balanced budget?’ There will be a fight over entitlements and growth.”

In the post-election analysis published on his website, Winston delivered a blunt message to his party: “At a broader level, Republicans have to become the party of economic growth again, and effectively engage in developing and advocating policies that reflect that. This is essential if Republicans hope to grow as a party.”

From the Democrats’ point of view, there is nothing wrong with Medicare and Social Security, and these programs should not be dragged into the argument over the deficit, according to Greenberg, senior vice president at Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, which does polling and messaging for Democrats and for liberal causes.

“There is no mandate for cutting these programs,” she said. “People think the problem is the deficit.”

 The “presidential campaign on our side never really engaged the debate” on topics of Medicare and Social Security, she said. “In the battleground states, we did not talk about these issues.”

She said voters favor “progressive solutions; they have no problems with more revenues.”

An in-depth survey of popular sentiment by NASI showed widespread support for Social Security itself, and for additional revenues to keep it solvent for the long-run.

For the statement, “it is critical that we preserve Social Security even if it means increasing Social Security taxes paid by working Americans,” 74 percent of Republicans, 88 percent of Democrats and 83 percent of independents all agreed.

When the tax question asks about increasing payroll taxes for the wealthy (the tax is now levied on incomes up to $113,000), 71% of Republicans, 97% of Democrats and 86% of independents favored the higher taxes for higher incomes.

• Eliminate the cap over 10 years so that 100 percent of earnings are taxed
• Over 20 years, raise the tax rate by 1/20th of 1 percent per year for employees and employers
• Raise the minimum Social Security benefit
• Increase the cost-of-living adjustment to reflect inflation experienced by seniors, according to the NASI report. 

“Support is strong across party lines, with 78% of Republicans, 89% of Democrats, and 86% of independents in favor of Package B.”

Greenberg was critical of some Democrats, including the president, for not making a stronger defense of the social insurance program. She said she was disappointed during one of the debates when President Obama said he and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney agreed on some aspects of the Social Security issue.

“Democrats are part of the problem when they say it is an issue of budget deficits versus social insurance,” Greenberg said. “This debate trade-off is a false choice. This is very frustrating.”

“The view that the programs are out of control is the [debate] frame accepted by people in Washington,” she said.

“And that is precisely how the Republicans will approach the issue,” said Winston.

Medicare and Social Security spending “are increasing at a scale the country can’t afford,” he said. Most Americans believe “these programs are unsustainable.”

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